The Irish Times view on the EU and Trump: trouble ahead

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections comes as a shock to the European Union and its member-states because his policies will radically disrupt transatlantic relations. That is quite clear from his initial appointments. It will frame how EU leaders tackle major existing problems which will continue to preoccupy them as Trump comes to power. The EU’s economic competitiveness, European security and defence and its political role in a rapidly changing world are freshly highlighted as the new European Commission also takes up office.
Trump’s proposals to correct US trade deficits with import tariffs threatens a trade war with the EU. Estimates of the potential damage are severe. If the new administration is indeed transactional, hard negotiations can help mitigate that. But major transatlantic differences over regulation of high technology firms will tend to reinforce trade disagreements.
Behind trade and regulation lies the EU’s strategic debate on how to boost its global competitiveness in technology, productivity and climate action. The declaration on European competitiveness at the EU summit in Budapest commits its leaders to take action on the single market and a capital markets union, to create an industrial policy for key technologies and to a drastic cut in regulatory bureaucracy. This is welcome but awaits major agreements on funding and methods.
Geopolitical tensions between the US and the EU over foreign policy, security and defence issues affect this agenda. Trump wants a rapid end to the war in Ukraine and is ready to deal with Russia. On Saturday Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Trumps’s victory would be likely to see the war end more quickly.
The EU continues to promise support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia’s imperial invasion. Here, US military and financial dominance of Nato matters hugely. Whether and how Trump bargains will also feed into the EU’s developing decisions on its proper global role, notably on China and the Middle East.
Deep political uncertainties and disagreements within the EU make its search for unity on these issues difficult. The forthcoming German elections coincide with a weaker French government, posing questions about the classical Franco-German motor of closer EU cooperation. Trump’s victory emboldens radical right-wing and Eurosceptic voices within European politics too, making their direction over the next period even more unpredictable.
As a small, open, trading EU member-state which has benefitted hugely from globalisation, Ireland is exposed and vulnerable to the political forces triggered by Trump’s victory. They deserve a central place in the general election campaign debates.